A “storm” is my new name for a scenario in which tiebreakers C (head to head) and D1 (overall wins) fail to break a tie for a playoff spot.
Two scenarios are considered part of the same storm if the following criteria are met:
When four or more teams are tied on a region record, with no head-to-head sweep, and three or more (but not all) of the tied teams are tied for most overall wins, then the others at that step are said to be entangled.
Entanglement works like this: Suppose that Atlanta, Baltimore, Charlotte, and Dallas are tied. Atlanta beat Baltimore and Charlotte; Baltimore beat Charlotte; Charlotte beat Dallas; and Dallas beat Atlanta and Baltimore. Dallas has one fewer overall win than the others, so is not part of the tie. But if Charlotte comes in first in the deep tiebreak, then Dallas will finish second because they beat the other two teams remaining. Thus, Dallas is entangled in the Atlanta/Baltimore/Charlotte tiebreaker.
On the Sunday following the 9th Friday of the football season, the set of possible storms is determined. Names are assigned in sequence from 1A to 6A, regions 1 to 8; then to Division II from A to AAA and from east to west.
Names are selected from the tropical cyclone name list maintained by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, beginning with the first from the real-world 2024–25 season, which is Robyn. Future years will begin where the previous one left off; as a result, the first name used in 2025 will be Alessia.
The grid lists each tied team’s non-region opponents under it. (Region teams are omitted, because they are either common opponents, or each other, and their own records are of course equal.) Teams in black text on lime are those that have clinched a .500 or better record; white text on red is for teams that cannot reach .500; and red text on silver may end up either way.
If it is possible for tiebreak D2 to fail, then D3 is to count wins over .500+ opponents. To show this, a ☆ indicates a win for the team heading that column, and a ▼ is a loss.
Averted by Happy Valley win over Unaka.
Averted by Jellico win over Jackson County 🏇.
Averted by Moore County win over Forrest.
Averted by Wayne County win over Collinwood.
Eagleville | Huntland | Moore County |
---|---|---|
Providence Christian ▼ | Whitwell ▼ | Forrest ☆ |
Loretto ☆ | Grundy County ☆ | Fayetteville ▼ |
Tennessee Heat ☆ | Lookout Valley ☆ | Franklin Christian ☆ |
Community ☆ | Cascade ☆ | Cascade ☆ |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Result: Eagleville wins; Huntland is then second, Moore County third, and Richland fourth.
Averted by Moore County win over Forrest.
Averted by Wayne County win over Collinwood.
Averted by Wayne County win over Collinwood.
Eagleville | Huntland | Moore County |
---|---|---|
Providence Christian ▼ | Whitwell ▼ | Forrest ☆ |
Loretto ☆ | Grundy County ☆ | Fayetteville ▼ |
Tennessee Heat ☆ | Lookout Valley ☆ | Franklin Christian ☆ |
Community ☆ | Cascade ☆ | Cascade ☆ |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Result: Eagleville wins third place; Huntland is then fourth.
Averted by Moore County win over Forrest.
Averted by Huntland win over Cornersville.
Bluff City | Hillcrest | Oakhaven |
---|---|---|
Westwood | Middle College | Middle College |
Rossville Christian | Christian Brothers | Chester County |
no 7th | Sheffield | MASE |
no 8th | Wooddale | M. U. S. |
no 9th | KIPP | Booker T. Washington |
no 10th | Lakeland | no 10th |
1 | 3 | 3 |
Result: Oakhaven would be third by the head-to-head win involved in getting there. Hillcrest would be fourth.
Austin-East | Scott | Union County |
---|---|---|
Gatlinburg-Pittman | Knox Central 🏇 | Gibbs |
Grace Christian (Knox) | Whitley County 🏇 | Cosby |
Pigeon Forge | Eagleton | South Greene |
William Blount | Pickett County | Cherokee |
Carter | Clinton | William Blount |
South-Doyle | Cumberland County | Claiborne |
3–4 | 0–3 | 4–6 |
Result: Even if Austin-East gets a fourth credit, the same result gives Union County its fifth. Union County is third and Austin-East fourth.
Averted by Liberty Creek win over Maplewood.
Averted by Greeneville win over Northview.
Averted by White County win over DeKalb County.
Averted by White County win over DeKalb County.
Averted by North Side win over South Gibson.
Averted by Chester County win over Lexington.
Note: This one is named out of order because it came into play (by the Board of Control awarding Lexington a forfeit win over Manassas) after storm names were assigned.
Averted by Columbia Central win over James Lawson.
Averted by Portland win over Westmoreland.
Averted by Cleveland win over Bradley Central.
Averted by Clarksville win over Rossview.
Averted by Bartlett win over Rossview.
Averted by Bartlett win over Rossview.
Averted by Oneida win over King’s Academy.